Wednesday, October 25, 2006

It's the Earnings, Stupid

There can be over a million interpretations of the statement that accompanies the Fed’s decision to leave the funds rate unchanged at 5.25%. My humble interpretation is that the statement is not so different from the one that accompanied the last FOMC meeting on September 20. The market seems to see it this way too as investors suck it all up in a restrained manner. The major indices close a shave higher on high volume.

The focus now shifts back to earnings. So far, almost 75% of S&P firms that have reported have beaten Wall Street expectations. Regardless, what matters most to investors now is not the last quarter but forward guidance: what the expectation is with regard to corporate performance next quarter and next year. This week will see majority of S&P firms report. So the earnings season is winding down. Phew!

In folio action a positive earnings report from Amazon (AMZN) rubs off on EBAY, which manages a 2.5% gain in live action. Actually EBAY appears to have broken through a resistance level – or ceiling price – over this past week. This means it is now likely to trend upward in the near-term.

ADBE boosts its fiscal Q4 earnings guidance and the stock responds positively. Its fourth quarter ends on December 1. It also holds a live webcast of a Q&A session on the side of a tech conference to give insights into current projects. ADBE’s product pipeline is very rich and the innovation fervor that drives this company will continue to propel this stock in the long-term, starting from next month when the first of its next-generation - or Web 2.0 - products emerges. ADBE really excites me. I believe this firm is really a diamond in the rough!

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