Monday, October 16, 2006

Earnings vs. Indicators

It’s going to be wild on the Street this week! In addition to an earnings deluge that begins tomorrow, several important economic indicators will emerge. Will the market react more to earnings than to inflation-benign economic data? I really can’t tell but would think so, simply because earnings are the most fundamental signals of corporate health.

Anyway the market starts the week on a good footing. The rotation out of staples continues as more investors want to participate in the seasonal market run-up with more cyclical sectors. The indices all close higher on bullish expectations for corporate profits.

EBAY reports on Wednesday. If earnings don’t match or beat the Street consensus, it may mean that the tactic in August to raise fees for store listings has not had the desired effect of increasing auction listings, which bring in more money for EBAY. We’ll see.

I’m impressed by PBW’s performance since it joined the folio. This clean energy exchange-traded fund (ETF) has returned 7.62% since I bought it last month. That’s more than the 7.19% the Nasdaq has gained year-to-date (YTD)! I was a bit worried that its fortunes will be tied entirely to that of IGE, which is also a natural resource ETF, but the two haven’t always acted in concert. I bought PBW as an upside hedge on IGE.

I’ve still got three sector vacancies for the folio: Health-care, Financials, and Africa (excluding Egypt and South Africa). The search continues.

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