As usual on the first Friday of each month, payroll numbers emerge. The September numbers are neutral. I think Payroll and wage rate numbers are more credible than the unemployment rate, since the latter is based on a survey of “households”. Not everyone that is unemployed says so or is even looking for a job. Is someone without a job but not looking for one unemployed? Unemployment is notoriously difficult to measure.
Anyway the data seem to reaffirm the bullish “soft landing” in 07 scenario. The Bond market agrees as Treasury yields rally. Stocks close down marginally, probably due to profit taking more than anything else.
Soft landing. Soft landing. Hmnnn. Of the folio stocks COST is likely to be the most hurt by a soft landing in 07. Unlike PG, it is more of a consumer discretionary than a staple though foods constitute about a third of its business.
Google (GOOG) is rumored to be in talks to buy YouTube. I don’t see what this has to do with EBAY but investors seem to disagree. EBAY sheds about half of Wednesday’s gains. EBAY’s Beta of 3.45 makes it the most volatile of folio stocks so am not surprised it’s been in Brownian motion this week. Only SLV and IGE see green today. Even almighty MSFT sheds gains.
For the week, the folio doesn’t make a particularly strong debut:
Index Return
NASDAQ 1.84%
DOW 1.47%
S&P 1.03%
Worst-known 0.40%
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