40 years ago, Motorola had not invented the cellular (mobile) phone.
Today, wherever you are in the world, you've probably heard of the mobile phone - unless you're a member of a recently discovered ancient "tribe" in the Amazon rainforest. There are now almost as many mobile subscriptions in the world as there are people.
Imagine if you knew today what could be a business phenomenon like the mobile phone 20, 30, 40 years from now. Even better, imagine if set yourself and/or your dependents up now to make money from such a phenomenon.
Well, fellow self-directed (retail) investors, one way to discover future business gems is to research and study trends. A trend simply is the progressive tendency or inclination of something.
I have identified the following six global trends that are facilitating the emergence of companies and businesses likely to make their investors very rich years from now:
Wednesday, February 20, 2013
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
WHAT’S WRONG WITH NIGERIAN STOCK MARKET REPORTS?
The short answer is that they are useless for stock market investors.
Whenever I read a local newspaper report on market activity on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) I’m just frustrated. All you get is that the market gyrated by some basis points and who the gainers and losers were. That’s it.
There’s hardly any mention of what moved - or could have moved - the market or a stock. Nothing inspires or motivates you to look deeper into the market or a stock for possible investment. Nothing makes you curious about stocks or the stock market. It’s like the journalists are too lazy to write something insightful.
For example, look at the stock market report for Monday, February 11, 2013, from Nigeria’s Business Day. Now compare that report to this report for Tuesday, February 12, 2013 from Reuters on U.K. market activity. See the difference? Nigerian commentators don’t try to connect the dots for uninitiated readers.
It’s no different when I hear a market report on radio.
Maybe this lack of easily-accessible and insightful stock market information is why most Nigerians don’t care about investing in stocks, which remains one of the easiest and fastest ways to make money wherever you are in the world.
I’m amazed at the increasing number of Foreign Exchange (forex) trading seminar ads I see in Nigerian newspapers. I doubt Nigerians trade forex in droves. Nonetheless, if Nigerians can take to forex trading then they can take to stocks trading because the forex market is a lot more complex than the stock market and Nigerians love simplicity.
Nigerian stock market commentators and writers need to do more than report statistics. The Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal are dailies yet they certainly try to get behind the numbers.
The regulators should take note. There’s no point in the Central Bank of Nigeria and/or the Securities and Exchange Commission compelling companies to list on the NSE when a majority of Nigerians don’t have the financial education to invest in the stock market.
I became a self-directed investor in 2006 - a year after I got out of B-School in the U.S. At the time I knew nada about investing in stocks, other than what I’d learned at B-School.
I learned the basics of stock market investing mostly from reading financial dailies and periodic magazines – Fortune Magazine is great for investigative journalism. I also frequented educational sites like the Motley Fool (www.fool.com) and Investopedia (www.investopedia.com).
I was so excited about what I was learning that I started this blog to share as I learned.
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
Google vs. China: the End Game
It's quite interesting to watch the current Google (ticker GOOG) vs. China Chess match over web search results censorship in China. It seems both parties are digging in their heels with tactics.
Where is it going to end?
At this point Google has probably gone too far with all the moves they have made to try to avoid censorship. It will not be a "good look" for their image if they were to totally back down now - though it will look good for the stock.
My prediction?
Google will close shop in China (including Hong Kong, where China will frustrate them).
Quitting China will probably not harm their stock because they currently don't make much of their money there. However, Google will be leaving a lot of money on the table in the long-run and this may prove too tempting.
Where is it going to end?
At this point Google has probably gone too far with all the moves they have made to try to avoid censorship. It will not be a "good look" for their image if they were to totally back down now - though it will look good for the stock.
My prediction?
Google will close shop in China (including Hong Kong, where China will frustrate them).
Quitting China will probably not harm their stock because they currently don't make much of their money there. However, Google will be leaving a lot of money on the table in the long-run and this may prove too tempting.
Wednesday, March 03, 2010
Will Lawsuits Become Apple's Waterloo?
I don't hold Apple stock, but it's a hugely successful company and I admire success anywhere.
If I were an Apple investor though, I'd be a little worried.
Why?
Well I've noticed Apple is filing more lawsuits and - perhaps consequently - increasingly becoming a target itself.
I've taken a look at Apple's 10-K for its fiscal year ended September 2009. There are eight pages of lawsuits, and the list is about to get longer with Apple's latest salvo against Taiwanese company HTC. Some analysts have described this lawsuit as an "indirect" shot at Google, since HTC is a major partner with Google on the Android smartphone system.
No matter how big and successful a company is, lawsuits are always bad news. They distract management and even employees.
I know when you're at the top everyone's gunning for you. But Apple could become so mired in all these lawsuits that it starts to lose its focus, and it's "magical" edge. And if Apple loses its edge, it will become rotten. Maybe I'm wrong.
If I were an Apple investor though, I'd be a little worried.
Why?
Well I've noticed Apple is filing more lawsuits and - perhaps consequently - increasingly becoming a target itself.
I've taken a look at Apple's 10-K for its fiscal year ended September 2009. There are eight pages of lawsuits, and the list is about to get longer with Apple's latest salvo against Taiwanese company HTC. Some analysts have described this lawsuit as an "indirect" shot at Google, since HTC is a major partner with Google on the Android smartphone system.
No matter how big and successful a company is, lawsuits are always bad news. They distract management and even employees.
I know when you're at the top everyone's gunning for you. But Apple could become so mired in all these lawsuits that it starts to lose its focus, and it's "magical" edge. And if Apple loses its edge, it will become rotten. Maybe I'm wrong.
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Sunday, February 21, 2010
Higher Taxes Are On the Way for American Business Owners and Investors from 2011
The budget deficit for the next decade is projected to be the highest - as a percentage of GDP - since WWII. Many of the temporary tax cuts Congress enacted during the Bush Administration were aimed at business owners and investors.
Now these tax cuts are set to expire at the end of 2010, and the Obama administration, which is struggling to reduce an unprecedented budget deficit in the nation's history, is unlikely to extend many of these cuts - those aimed at investors in particular. Remember that most business owners are also investors.
So if you're a business owner or investor, get ready for higher taxes over the next decade because if higher marginal tax rates don't get you, the stealthy Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) will.
Now these tax cuts are set to expire at the end of 2010, and the Obama administration, which is struggling to reduce an unprecedented budget deficit in the nation's history, is unlikely to extend many of these cuts - those aimed at investors in particular. Remember that most business owners are also investors.
So if you're a business owner or investor, get ready for higher taxes over the next decade because if higher marginal tax rates don't get you, the stealthy Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) will.
Thursday, September 17, 2009
Adobe Bets Big On Web Marketing
Adobe (ADBE) is one of my favorite tech stocks because they know when and what to buy.
In 2005, the company dug deep to buy Macromedia, an acquisition that propelled Adobe to pole position in creative publishing. Now they are betting big on online marketing with the announced acquisition of Omniture, the largest provider of web analytics.
This is a sensible acquisition. As Barron's points out, it incredibly complements Adobe's existing businesses, though myopic analysts and soundbite investors took the usual short-term view of the acquisition.
Another major reason the acquisition is an eight ball is because companies are shifting a big chunk of their marketing dollars online. Web (online) marketing is going to be big in the future, a reality obviously not lost on Adobe.
On the downside, the acquisitions brings Adobe in direct competition with Google Analytics. Google's YouTube and Chrome browser utilize Adobe's Flash technology, so will Adobe's move spoil the friendship? Maybe.
Anyway, it seems friendships in Silicon Valley are "till competition do us part", as the recent souring of the relationship between Google and Apple reveal.
May the best company win.
In 2005, the company dug deep to buy Macromedia, an acquisition that propelled Adobe to pole position in creative publishing. Now they are betting big on online marketing with the announced acquisition of Omniture, the largest provider of web analytics.
This is a sensible acquisition. As Barron's points out, it incredibly complements Adobe's existing businesses, though myopic analysts and soundbite investors took the usual short-term view of the acquisition.
Another major reason the acquisition is an eight ball is because companies are shifting a big chunk of their marketing dollars online. Web (online) marketing is going to be big in the future, a reality obviously not lost on Adobe.
On the downside, the acquisitions brings Adobe in direct competition with Google Analytics. Google's YouTube and Chrome browser utilize Adobe's Flash technology, so will Adobe's move spoil the friendship? Maybe.
Anyway, it seems friendships in Silicon Valley are "till competition do us part", as the recent souring of the relationship between Google and Apple reveal.
May the best company win.
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