Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Google vs. China: the End Game

It's quite interesting to watch the current Google (ticker GOOG) vs. China Chess match over web search results censorship in China. It seems both parties are digging in their heels with tactics.

Where is it going to end?

At this point Google has probably gone too far with all the moves they have made to try to avoid censorship. It will not be a "good look" for their image if they were to totally back down now - though it will look good for the stock.

My prediction?

Google will close shop in China (including Hong Kong, where China will frustrate them).

Quitting China will probably not harm their stock because they currently don't make much of their money there. However, Google will be leaving a lot of money on the table in the long-run and this may prove too tempting.

Wednesday, March 03, 2010

Will Lawsuits Become Apple's Waterloo?

I don't hold Apple stock, but it's a hugely successful company and I admire success anywhere.

If I were an Apple investor though, I'd be a little worried.

Why?

Well I've noticed Apple is filing more lawsuits and - perhaps consequently - increasingly becoming a target itself.

I've taken a look at Apple's 10-K for its fiscal year ended September 2009. There are eight pages of lawsuits, and the list is about to get longer with Apple's latest salvo against Taiwanese company HTC. Some analysts have described this lawsuit as an "indirect" shot at Google, since HTC is a major partner with Google on the Android smartphone system.

No matter how big and successful a company is, lawsuits are always bad news. They distract management and even employees.

I know when you're at the top everyone's gunning for you. But Apple could become so mired in all these lawsuits that it starts to lose its focus, and it's "magical" edge. And if Apple loses its edge, it will become rotten. Maybe I'm wrong.